Military escalation? Mamoun Fandy vs Juan Cole

Mamoun Fandy wrote a column in Asharq al-Awsat on Sunday December 4 (text here)in which he predicted the imminent departure of Abizaid as the CentCom chief (which in fact happened soon thereafter), and also the appointment of David Petraeus to replace him. ABC reported yesterday that Petraus is in fact going to get a senior appointment, (not as CentCom chief, admittedly, but as head of ground forces in Iraq).

Since Fandy was pretty much right in these predictions, it's worth taking another look at what else he said, remembering of course that he is a former senior fellow at the Baker Institute, and currently regarded as one of the Arab writers closest to the Saudi king. First about the political context of the change:

David Petraeus, or whatever other general takes the place of Abizaid, will have to be a part of the new strategy of the US administration, and will have to be more proactive, and perhaps less diplomatic, in explaining conditions in the field to Washington and to the neighboring states [neighboring Iraq]. We read the leaked Hadley memo that was printed in the New York Times, and that implied changing the head of the Iraqi government. The fact is that stability in Iraq and the region requires change not only in Iraq, but on both sides, that of the government of Iraq and the American administration. Change in Centcom leadership in Qatar is part of the overall change that is required by the new strategic balance.

And what exactly is the strategic change that Fandy was predicting?

The first thing this change will mean is a change in the operating strategy, in the way CentCom deals with the terrorist groups in the region, and there will be two parts to this, military and political. Perhaps we will be seeing more visits [to CentCom] from countries that border Iraq, and from other important countries in the region, looking for the application of security measures to limit entry of terrorists into Iraq, along with a request for an increase in US forces in the region in keeping with the size of the danger. (The italics are mine). And perhaps the new general will see the need for confrontation, and not for discussions, with Iran! (The exclamation point is Fandy's)

In other words, increased troop-levels, a more confrontational approach to Iran, as part of a change in the military leadership that will likely be coordinated with a change in the Baghdad government. Fandy seems to have got the military-personnel part of this right.

There is another early indicator of increased troop-levels and a more-confrontational approach to Iran, and it is the fact that Juan Cole is telling us the opposite. This morning he makes this prediction: "Despite all the talk of resurgence of the Neoconservatives with their 'surge'...this team [Petraeus and newly-appointed ambassador Ryan Crocker] is the farthest from Neoconservative desires that you could possibly get". Informed comment, or flim-flam?