How European diplomats are reading the mind of Bush
(For quick background, please recall the points in "Wheels falling off the political vehicle" of a few days ago, and before that the speculation in Azzaman and Al-Hayat about the "real" US demands ahead of the year-end meeting in Amman of Bush and Maliki).
Today the Sadrist news-site Nahrainnet.net reports that sources in a number of European capitals are seeing evidence confirming a US strategy that is quite different from the support-Maliki program that most people seem to believe in. The immediate news-hook for this is the recent arrest, with its humiliating circumstances, of the eldest son of Abdulaziz al-Hakim, head of SCIRI. The strategy the Europeans are said to anticipate is to use the Maliki administration for as long as possible to try for the elimination of the Mahdi Army as a force in the country, and then, depending on the results of that, to attack SCIRI and the Badr Corps. If none of that works, then there would be two alternatives as followup. First would be the creation of the "alternative political base" (talked about in the famous Hadley memo), to set up a "government of national salvation", and this would include the Iraqi List (Allawi's group), the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni), and the two big Kurdish parties. And finally, if that doesn't work, the strategy calls for setting up a military government that would shut down parliament, close newspapers radio and TV, and so on. Here are the main parts of the Nahrain report:
I am not sure I understand the exact sequencing of events that they are talking about, but the gist of it is clear: Use Maliki to inflict maximum damage on his own base (so this wouldn't look like a Sunni pogrom against Shiites), then replace Maliki with a military government or the next thing to it, to finish the job of establishing a US-compliant regime acceptable to the Sunni regimes of the region. No one is saying it is feasible or anything like that: What the Europeans diplomats are saying, according to Nahrain, is that this is what is in the mind of Bush.
Today the Sadrist news-site Nahrainnet.net reports that sources in a number of European capitals are seeing evidence confirming a US strategy that is quite different from the support-Maliki program that most people seem to believe in. The immediate news-hook for this is the recent arrest, with its humiliating circumstances, of the eldest son of Abdulaziz al-Hakim, head of SCIRI. The strategy the Europeans are said to anticipate is to use the Maliki administration for as long as possible to try for the elimination of the Mahdi Army as a force in the country, and then, depending on the results of that, to attack SCIRI and the Badr Corps. If none of that works, then there would be two alternatives as followup. First would be the creation of the "alternative political base" (talked about in the famous Hadley memo), to set up a "government of national salvation", and this would include the Iraqi List (Allawi's group), the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni), and the two big Kurdish parties. And finally, if that doesn't work, the strategy calls for setting up a military government that would shut down parliament, close newspapers radio and TV, and so on. Here are the main parts of the Nahrain report:
[The European sources, summarizing dipolmatic dispatches from Baghdad and Amman] said the reports talk about a strategy that is something like the theory of "creative chaos" which has governed a lot of US administration thinking since the 2003 invasion, and they summarized the current US plans as follows: (1) Definitive and final application of the current "Law and Order" security plan, with particular emphasis on striking at the Sadrist currrent and liquidating the Mahdi Army. (2) Initial application of a plan to strike at the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), including arrest and assassination of leaders of the Badr Corp, and kidnapping of responsible officials. (3) In the event of success in the above two points, efforts to topple the Maliki government, and preparation for the application of the concept of a government of national salvation, [based on the alliance described above: IAF, Kurds, and Allawi]. (4) If that doesn't work, then proceed to the imposition of a military government that would control the political/security situation, and would announce imposition of a state of emergency, with the closing of Parliament and newspapers radio and television.
These European diplomatic sources said the plan has been ready within the US administration since the middle of last year, and it was looking more and more likely in the months of October and November of last year [recall the political furor over the federalism legislation, then the runup to the Saddam execution], and it was supported by forces from Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and Jordan. But then it was postponed following the success of the Bush-Maliki talks in Amman at the end of last year.
And the European sources added: The fact that US forces went ahead with the arrest of Ammar al-Hakim in that provocative way, confirmed that the American scenario for opening a front with SCIRI is full steam ahead, and the time for a naked confrontation with SCIRI is getting closer, and it is dependent [only] on whatever success materializes in the strikes against the Mahdi Army and the arrest of its leaders and its paralysis as a military force."
I am not sure I understand the exact sequencing of events that they are talking about, but the gist of it is clear: Use Maliki to inflict maximum damage on his own base (so this wouldn't look like a Sunni pogrom against Shiites), then replace Maliki with a military government or the next thing to it, to finish the job of establishing a US-compliant regime acceptable to the Sunni regimes of the region. No one is saying it is feasible or anything like that: What the Europeans diplomats are saying, according to Nahrain, is that this is what is in the mind of Bush.
posted by badger at 6:01 AM
3 Comments:
It's funny that this Sadrist site sees it this way. It's probably accurate, but at the same time they don't mention how current Iraqi political leaders use the Americans, and not the other way around. The Shia and Kurdish government try to use the American government to consolidate territory and serve their sects, and many have close historical and regional ties with Iran, which is only logical. Of course it is strange to talk of Iraqi politicians using the Americans in the face of such a massive devastation of Iraq.
Anyway, it doesn't matter if this is in Bush's mind. Do you think for a second that if he tried to impose full martial law on millions of Iraqis, under which there was no television, no Parliament, no movement, that people would tolerate this? I imagine that if Bush did any such thing, you could expect Sadr City to rise en masse and kick out the U.S. troops in the same way that the British have been kicked out of southern Iraq repeatedly by Iraqi Shia Arabs.
Unless, that is, Bush managed to rally support among other countries in the Gulf or Europe or Asia to go to Iraq to help him impose martial law, which would provide him with sufficient troops to impose such a strategy. But other countries are very unwilling to do any such thing.
Please tell me if you see any parallels:
"The British, who, having put down a Shia rebellion against their rule in the 1920s, "confirmed their reliance on a corps of Sunni ex-officers of the collapsed Ottoman empire". It was when the Sunni and Shia united against colonial rule that it ended[34]."
"First would be the creation of the "alternative political base" (talked about in the famous Hadley memo), to set up a "government of national salvation", and this would include the Iraqi List (Allawi's group), the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni), and the two big Kurdish parties. And finally, if that doesn't work, the strategy calls for setting up a military government that would shut down parliament, close newspapers radio and TV, and so on."
Badger,
Today, Maliki truimphantly touted the success of the new oil law that is going to parliament to be rubber stamped and al-Shahristani said on the Al-Hurra t.v station that agreement in the cabinet on the law was "unanimous". That may be one reason why Maliki will stay and not be toppled by a coup, military or otherwise.
Also, how can there be a military coup if there's no credible military?
Good question. I report, you decide... The only thing I would note is that there is strong logic in the idea of Bush trying to install, eventually, a regime acceptable to his Sunni allies and not that friendly to Iran; and this sniping at Sadrist and SCIRI leaders does seem to be consistent with undermining Maliki and going down that road (as these reported diplomatic memos suggest). How they imagine the last act of this being carried out is something else again.
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