Thursday, July 10, 2008

On the difference between a "time-limit" and "the concept of a time-limit"

The GreenZone newspaper AlSabaah continues this morning the exercise of putting a tough image on the government's stance respecting American troop withdrawal. Bearing in mind the comments by various politicians quoted by AlHayat (see prior post), let's take a look at the AlSabaah version this morning, starting with the headline:
The government proposes the concept of American withdrawal from Iraq within five years: Washington hopes to arrive at an agreement with Baghdad for a SOFA: Baghdad--AlSabaah. Informed sources said the government proposed to Washington a temporal upper-limit for the withdrawal of the American forces from Iraq within five years, in negotiations for a SOFA agreement for security cooperation. The government stressed that any future bilateral agreement with the United States will have to include a final deadline for the withdrawal of the American and allied forces. And the government spokesman Ali Dabbagh said: "Any schedule for the withdrawal of forces will be subject to the circumstances and conditions the country will experience," however he stressed that the withdrawal of the allied forces will be within three or four or five years."

He explained that the government does not have a defined time-limit, but he stressed the necessity of an agreement on the principle of setting a final time-limit. And he explained in a press statement that differences respecting American bases, and the authority that will be enjoyed by those forces, are what are standing in the way of the American administration's aim of securing an agreement by the end of July.
There you have it. The Maliki administration has proposed the concept of a time-limit for the withdrawal, but when they say "proposed the concept" they don't mean they have proposed including an actual time limit, only that the have proposed including the concept of a time-limit.

So although the rhetoric remains, in fact it seems pretty clear that the government has already caved in on the time-limit demand, if in fact there ever was one, and the issues now waiting to be caved-in on are those respecting American bases and the authority for the American forces to continue operating in Iraq as they have been doing.

64 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

And we're back to Al-quds al-Arabi's editorial of a few days ago: Al-Maliki does not have the power to ask for a straight withdrawal. He's only pretending to do so for image and PR reasons. Caving in to what America demands is all his "make-believe government" (to use Shirin's very apt turn of phrase) can do. But some appearances must be maintained, words of sovereignty must be spoken, hence the recent declarations... The editorial also points out that al-Maliki's physical survival is at stake here... There will be more "tough talk" about 'withdrawal', but not that tough, and only talk.

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Maliki's just doing his dance. He's trying to get as much as he can from the U.S. in any deal, while posing as a nationalist for the Iraqi public.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does anyone have any prediction,however, on how these various poses and manuevers as they unfold will affect the overall level of insurgency and inter-Shia violence for example?

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Blogger Bruno said...

I think that Motown67 pretty much summed it up.

Maybe I'm naive, but I'm still hoping. I don't think this story is finished yet. let's just keep our ears to the floor. There's still scope for misunderstanding.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think I agree with the comments above. Maliki is stuck on a very sharp prong, which is pressure from below in Iraq. The Hawza, his colleagues, the nationalist public. The SOFA will not be signed, because it cannot be - M is not free to give in to the US, even if he wants to. Resistance has been roused. What is being reported here by Badger shows it clearly.

Nothing, I think, will happen. In the end I should think the UN mandate will be extended by a year (as that is a US controlled decision). And then another year, etc., until such time as other events decide the future of the occupation.

I don't think it matters whether Maliki appears to be backtracking. He still can't be seen to make the positive step of signing.

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I am pretty much with Alex on this. Maliki is between a rock and hard place. That is, he is between the Iraqi people whom he supposedly represents (that'll be the day!), and his masters who keep him employed, the U.S. government. He is damned either way.

As I have said before, the U.S. is not going to leave willingly, no matter who is president. Their definition of success is not a stable and self-governing Iraq, and it never was. Their goal is a permanent controlling presence in the country, and they are not going to give that up without a fight, even if they have to burn the whole country to the ground in order to accomplish it.

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