First indications of the regionalization of the Iraq civil war
Al-Hayat reports this morning (Friday November 17) on the escalation in sectarian violence in Baghdad then adds this sentence: "With the rise in the ferocity of separation, particularly in Baghdad, which has witnessed in the recent period of time campaigns of Shiite-Sunni separation (in particular neighborhoods respectively), the head of the Iraqi Accord Front [Sunni; 44 seats in parliament], Adnan Dulaimi, in a speech he delivered in Amman on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the birth of Hasan al-Banna, founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, called on the Sunni people to rescue Iraq from the Persian incursion, before Baghdad becomes a Safavid city." And the journalist immediately returns to a recitation of the Baghdad sectarian violence. There isn't any elaboration of Dulaimi's remarks, but the point clearly is that the Sunni leadership has started thinking of the Iraqi civil war in regional terms, and is starting to appeal to Sunni populations in the surrounding region for help.
Without getting into the question of authenticity or otherwise of the document, it is worth noting that one of the "incriminating documents" collection that Elaph.com referred to yesterday is purportedly a Badr organization analysis and action-advisory to all Shiites in Iraq, and it includes in its analysis what could well be considered background for the above-noted Dulaimi remarks.
The document describes the Sunni leadership as unhappy about their inability to achieve anything "through their comical participation in the political process", as a result of which the political and military leadership of the Sunnis has now decided on a "desperate attempt to break the blockade [that has been imposed on them] by means of alliances and treaties with neighboring governments (described as heretical Wahabi and 'propped up') particularly Saudi, Jordan, Egypt, Yemen and the Emirates, to change the political map-boundaries in Iraq and in the region, in coordination with the Anglo-American forces..."
It is for this reason, namely prospects of a pan-Sunni attack coordinated with the Americans, that the Badr organization calls for mobilization and closing of the Shiite ranks, in this document (which I repeat hasn't been confirmed as to authenticity). But my point is that whether this is a document composed by the Badr organization, or by parties pretending to be the Badr organization, doesn't alter the fact that what is assumed is this framework of Shiite anxiety about Sunni-regional cooperation with the Americans.
ADDED NOTE: Al-Dhari made remarks in an Al-Jazeera interview this morning, and among the points summarized by their website are the following: Al-Dhari said the Maliki government was trying to concoct a crisis with him in order to cover their blatant internal-security failures. In addition to that, Al-Dhari said, the government had tried to block him from visiting various Arab countries and forming relationships, in order that they (the Shiite government) could try and monopolize those relationships. This underlines the new (at least largely unreported) factor, namely the question of regional alliances.
There are some who think the issuance of the arrest warrant (now understood to be merely an investigation-warrant) was a Maliki ploy to prevent the Baker commission from promoting a tilt to the Sunnis in furtherance of a revival of the National Reconciliation. That is a somewhat Washington-centric view, where the situation is still seen as amenable to discussion. Naturally the Maliki administration wants to prevent any American tilt to the Sunnis, but the anxieties are now military ones, and the timing of the Dhari warrant seems clearly motivated by the desire to impede the current Sunni drive for alliances with the neighboring Sunni regimes.
Without getting into the question of authenticity or otherwise of the document, it is worth noting that one of the "incriminating documents" collection that Elaph.com referred to yesterday is purportedly a Badr organization analysis and action-advisory to all Shiites in Iraq, and it includes in its analysis what could well be considered background for the above-noted Dulaimi remarks.
The document describes the Sunni leadership as unhappy about their inability to achieve anything "through their comical participation in the political process", as a result of which the political and military leadership of the Sunnis has now decided on a "desperate attempt to break the blockade [that has been imposed on them] by means of alliances and treaties with neighboring governments (described as heretical Wahabi and 'propped up') particularly Saudi, Jordan, Egypt, Yemen and the Emirates, to change the political map-boundaries in Iraq and in the region, in coordination with the Anglo-American forces..."
It is for this reason, namely prospects of a pan-Sunni attack coordinated with the Americans, that the Badr organization calls for mobilization and closing of the Shiite ranks, in this document (which I repeat hasn't been confirmed as to authenticity). But my point is that whether this is a document composed by the Badr organization, or by parties pretending to be the Badr organization, doesn't alter the fact that what is assumed is this framework of Shiite anxiety about Sunni-regional cooperation with the Americans.
ADDED NOTE: Al-Dhari made remarks in an Al-Jazeera interview this morning, and among the points summarized by their website are the following: Al-Dhari said the Maliki government was trying to concoct a crisis with him in order to cover their blatant internal-security failures. In addition to that, Al-Dhari said, the government had tried to block him from visiting various Arab countries and forming relationships, in order that they (the Shiite government) could try and monopolize those relationships. This underlines the new (at least largely unreported) factor, namely the question of regional alliances.
There are some who think the issuance of the arrest warrant (now understood to be merely an investigation-warrant) was a Maliki ploy to prevent the Baker commission from promoting a tilt to the Sunnis in furtherance of a revival of the National Reconciliation. That is a somewhat Washington-centric view, where the situation is still seen as amenable to discussion. Naturally the Maliki administration wants to prevent any American tilt to the Sunnis, but the anxieties are now military ones, and the timing of the Dhari warrant seems clearly motivated by the desire to impede the current Sunni drive for alliances with the neighboring Sunni regimes.
posted by badger at 7:19 AM
2 Comments:
There are some who think the issuance of the arrest warrant (now understood to be merely an investigation-warrant) was a Maliki ploy to prevent the Baker commission from promoting a tilt to the Sunnis in furtherance of a revival of the National Reconciliation. That is a somewhat Washington-centric view, where the situation is still seen as amenable to discussion. Naturally the Maliki administration wants to prevent any American tilt to the Sunnis, but the anxieties are now military ones, and the timing of the Dhari warrant seems clearly motivated by the desire to impede the current Sunni drive for alliances with the neighboring Sunni regimes.
Maybe some badgers and some Iraqis understand the Hon. Baker better than I do (who only happen to live in the same country with him), but the idea of him "promoting a tilt to the Sunnis" makes no sense to me at all. That was Sultan Zalmay's policy, ferociously pursued, and it has led only to . . . to only what we see in today's papers.
If Baker-Hamilton-Gates is now to supersede Khalilzad as Bush's Brain, surely we'll see something rather different?
But what do I know?
that's a big if though, isn't it?
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