Updating the US plan for Palestine

Azzam al-Ahmad, a senior Fatah person, and currently deputy Prime minister in the government of national unity, has said if the current economic blockade led by the US and Europe isn't lifted, the national unity government will collapse within three months at most, and the author of the lead editorial in Al-Quds al-Arabi (which leans to Hamas, as you know) says he agrees. And the editorialist adds: There isn't any prospect of the blockade being lifted, because the Palestinians' "friends" aren't putting any pressure on Washington to do so. He says Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas raised this with the Saudi king during his recent tour, "But the only response he obtained was advise to to to Washington and get their agreement first of all, then there wouldn't be any problem resuming funding of the Palestinian Authority".

And logic suggests the Americans may well be already planning for the post-collapse situation. Why else, the editorialist asks, would they continue spending millions on training and arming of security forces associated with Fatah, at the same time that they continue to block general funding for the government? He puts it this way:

The American administration, which earmarks millions for the Presidential Guards, and finances training and arming of its members in Jordan and in Egypt, is perhaps preparing in advance for stage that comes after the collapse of the government. It doesn't seem logical that they would earmark $60 million for the reconstruction of the [Presidential] Guards, and at the same time block [general] funding for the government, in spite of the fact that the Minister of Finance is friends with many of the American authorities, including Condoleeza Rice...

The scheme laid out in the February-March "Action Plan" (see prior post) called for building up of the role of Abbas and Fatah within the formal framework of the national unity government, via quick-fix economic funding, euphoria over negotiations with Israel, and security-improvements. Obviously that overall scheme has not worked out. What the Al-Quds editorialist is suggesting is what comes next for US policy: Namely continued economic squeeze, with generous funding only for the Fatah-related security forces in preparation for the period of lawlessness that will follow the national-unity government's inevitable collapse.